What to do in Mesa now
Mesa is in warm-season grass country. Dates are typical for this spot, worked out from 23 years of weather at Phoenix Airport; each status uses this year's soil estimates.
Cool-season: tall fescue, Kentucky bluegrass, perennial ryegrass, fine fescue
- Crabgrass pre-emergent No clear spring window Typical: Soil rarely drops below 55°FSoil here stays warm enough for crabgrass to sprout in most months. Extension calendars in frost-free areas usually time a late-winter pre-emergent application by date rather than by soil temperature.
- Seed or overseed Opens about Nov 15 Typical: Nov 15 – Dec 21Fall is the best time to seed. Start once 4-inch soil cools below 70°F, typically Nov 15, and finish while it is above 55°F, typically Dec 21.
- Late-fall feeding Soil rarely cools to 40°F Typical: Through winterRoots stay active through most winters here. Feed on the fall schedule your extension office gives for your grass, and avoid feeding a lawn that is dormant from drought.
Warm-season: bermudagrass, zoysia, St. Augustine, centipede, bahia
- Crabgrass pre-emergent No clear spring window Typical: Soil rarely drops below 55°FSoil here stays warm enough for crabgrass to sprout in most months. Extension calendars in frost-free areas usually time a late-winter pre-emergent application by date rather than by soil temperature.
- Seed or sod Seed or sod now Typical: Mar 9 – Nov 154-inch soil is 71°. Seed planted later than late summer has little warm weather left to establish before dormancy.
- Fall pre-emergent (Poa annua) Apply within 11 days Typical: By Nov 14Annual bluegrass (Poa annua) starts sprouting when 4-inch soil falls below 70°F, typically Nov 14. A fall pre-emergent must be down before then. Skip it if you plan to overseed with ryegrass.
- Dormancy and last feeding Expected about Dec 21 Typical: Around Dec 21Warm-season grass slows and browns once 4-inch soil stays under 55°F, typically Dec 21. Make the last nitrogen feeding at least a month before that.
The last 60 days and the week ahead
Mesa soil is 3° cooler than normal for Nov 3, cooler than on 84% of those dates since 2005, and 7° cooler than a year ago.
The green line is our estimate of the daily average soil temperature 2 inches down, driven by temperatures at Phoenix Airport, 26.8 km from the city center. The dashed part runs the National Weather Service forecast through the same model. Hover or tap for any day.
2-inch soil, estimated From the NWS forecast Normal Normal range (8 years in 10)
Show the numbers
| Date | 2-inch soil | 4-inch soil | Air high / low | Normal (2 in) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | 79° | 80° | 93° / 71° | 78° |
| Oct 21 | 80° | 81° | 92° / 76° | 78° |
| Oct 22 | 80° | 81° | 89° / 72° | 78° |
| Oct 23 | 78° | 80° | 82° / 64° | 77° |
| Oct 24 | 76° | 78° | 77° / 63° | 77° |
| Oct 25 | 74° | 77° | 83° / 60° | 77° |
| Oct 26 | 74° | 76° | 86° / 61° | 76° |
| Oct 27 | 74° | 76° | 87° / 63° | 76° |
| Oct 28 | 74° | 76° | 84° / 63° | 75° |
| Oct 29 | 74° | 76° | 85° / 63° | 74° |
| Oct 30 | 73° | 75° | 74° / 65° | 74° |
| Oct 31 | 72° | 74° | 79° / 64° | 74° |
| Nov 1 | 71° | 73° | 72° / 63° | 73° |
| Nov 2 | 69° | 72° | 73° / 59° | 73° |
| Nov 3 | 69° | 71° | 79° / 59° | 72° |
| Nov 4 (forecast) | 68° | 70° | 77° / 55° | 72° |
| Nov 5 (forecast) | 68° | 70° | 77° / 57° | 72° |
| Nov 6 (forecast) | 68° | 70° | 79° / 58° | 71° |
| Nov 7 (forecast) | 68° | 70° | 80° / 59° | 71° |
| Nov 8 (forecast) | 69° | 70° | 80° / 59° | 71° |
| Nov 9 (forecast) | 69° | 70° | 80° / 58° | 70° |
Which grass grows in Mesa
With mild winters (January averages 57°F), most Mesa lawns are warm-season grasses such as bermudagrass, St. Augustine, zoysia and centipede. They grow through summer and slow or go dormant in winter.
Mesa soil through the year
Weekly 2-inch estimates for 2026 so far against 2025 and the normal for each week. The red lines mark 50°F, when crabgrass pre-emergent should be down, and 65°F, when warm-season seed sprouts well.
2026 2025 Normal (2005–2025) 8 years in 10
Normal by month
| Month | 2 in | 4 in | Air |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 55° | 56° | 57° |
| Feb | 59° | 60° | 60° |
| Mar | 66° | 67° | 66° |
| Apr | 74° | 75° | 73° |
| May | 83° | 84° | 82° |
| Jun | 93° | 95° | 91° |
| Jul | 98° | 100° | 96° |
| Aug | 97° | 98° | 94° |
| Sep | 91° | 93° | 89° |
| Oct | 80° | 81° | 77° |
| Nov | 67° | 69° | 65° |
| Dec | 57° | 58° | 56° |
Soil: average of our daily estimates, 2005–2025. Air: NOAA 1991–2020 normals for the station.
Typical lawn dates in Mesa
Each date is when the soil estimate (or the air, for freezes) crossed the threshold, year by year since 2005. “Early” and “late” are the 10th and 90th percentile years, so 8 years in 10 fall between them.
| Event | Typical | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Crabgrass model: 250 growing degree days | Jan 11 | Jan 10 |
| Pre-emergent window opens (2-inch soil 50°F) | early Feb | Feb 1 |
| Crabgrass begins to sprout (2-inch soil 55°F) | Feb 15 | Feb 15 |
| Cool-season lawns start growing (4-inch soil 55°F) | Feb 1 | Feb 1 |
| Warm-season seeding opens (4-inch soil 65°F) | Mar 9 | Feb 6 |
| Cool-season seeding opens (4-inch soil under 70°F) | Nov 15 | not yet |
| Cool-season seeding ends (4-inch soil under 55°F) (in 15 of 21 years) | Dec 21 | not yet |
| Warm-season grass goes dormant (4-inch under 55°F) (in 15 of 21 years) | Dec 21 | not yet |
Where these numbers come from
There is no soil sensor in most cities, so we estimate it. Shallow soil follows air temperature with a lag of a few days, and runs a little warmer than the air in fall. We fitted that relationship to 190 USDA soil-sensor stations; on years held out of the fit, the estimate was off by 3.3°F on an average day, and it put the spring 55°F date within a median of 3 days. Read the methodology.
Weather: RCC ACIS station KPHX (PHOENIX AIRPORT), daily data since 1933. Forecast: National Weather Service, PSR office, issued Nov 4, 2026, 5:56 AM EST. Last observed day: Nov 3, 2026.
Mesa questions
What is the soil temperature in Mesa today? Our estimate for Nov 3 is 69°F at 2 inches and 71°F at 4 inches, as a daily average. Early-morning soil runs a few degrees cooler than that, and afternoon soil warmer.
When should I put down crabgrass pre-emergent in Mesa? Soil here rarely cools below 55°F, so there is no clean spring window; frost-free areas usually apply in late winter by calendar date.
When can I seed bermudagrass in Mesa? Seed or sod now. 4-inch soil is 71°. Seed planted later than late summer has little warm weather left to establish before dormancy.
Is it too late to fertilize in Mesa? Expected about Dec 21. Warm-season grass slows and browns once 4-inch soil stays under 55°F, typically Dec 21. Make the last nitrogen feeding at least a month before that.
When is the last frost in Mesa? The last 32°F night of spring has typically come around Jan 15, and as late as Jan 27 in 1 year in 10. The first fall freeze typically arrives around Dec 31.
Why 2 inches and 4 inches? Crabgrass and most weed seeds sprout in the top inch or two, so pre-emergent timing follows 2-inch soil. Grass seed and roots respond to the slightly steadier soil at about 4 inches.
How accurate is this? It is a model, not a probe in your yard. Expect about 3–4°F of difference on a given day; shade, slope, mulch and irrigation all move real soil. The dates and trends are more reliable than any single day.