What to do in Victoria now
Victoria is in warm-season grass country. Dates are typical for this spot, worked out from 23 years of weather at Victoria Regional Ap; each status uses this year's soil estimates.
Cool-season: tall fescue, Kentucky bluegrass, perennial ryegrass, fine fescue
- Crabgrass pre-emergent Closed Feb 15 Typical: early Feb – Feb 152-inch soil held 55°F for a week from Feb 15, so crabgrass was sprouting. Next window: about Feb 1 – Feb 15, 2027.
- Seed or overseed Opens any day now Typical: Nov 2 – Dec 10Fall is the best time to seed. Start once 4-inch soil cools below 70°F, typically Nov 2, and finish while it is above 55°F, typically Dec 10.
- Late-fall feeding Soil rarely cools to 40°F Typical: Through winterRoots stay active through most winters here. Feed on the fall schedule your extension office gives for your grass, and avoid feeding a lawn that is dormant from drought.
Warm-season: bermudagrass, zoysia, St. Augustine, centipede, bahia
- Crabgrass pre-emergent Closed Feb 15 Typical: early Feb – Feb 152-inch soil held 55°F for a week from Feb 15, so crabgrass was sprouting. Next window: about Feb 1 – Feb 15, 2027.
- Seed or sod Seed or sod now Typical: Mar 7 – Nov 24-inch soil is 75°. Seed planted later than late summer has little warm weather left to establish before dormancy.
- Fall pre-emergent (Poa annua) Apply now Typical: By Oct 31Annual bluegrass (Poa annua) starts sprouting when 4-inch soil falls below 70°F, typically Oct 31. A fall pre-emergent must be down before then. Skip it if you plan to overseed with ryegrass.
- Dormancy and last feeding Expected about Dec 10 Typical: Around Dec 10Warm-season grass slows and browns once 4-inch soil stays under 55°F, typically Dec 10. Make the last nitrogen feeding at least a month before that.
The last 60 days and the week ahead
Victoria soil is 7° warmer than normal for Nov 3, warmer than on 90% of those dates since 2005, and 11° warmer than a year ago.
The green line is our estimate of the daily average soil temperature 2 inches down, driven by temperatures at Victoria Regional Ap, 6.6 km from the city center. The dashed part runs the National Weather Service forecast through the same model. Hover or tap for any day.
2-inch soil, estimated From the NWS forecast Normal Normal range (8 years in 10)
Show the numbers
| Date | 2-inch soil | 4-inch soil | Air high / low | Normal (2 in) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | 70° | 72° | 82° / 60° | 73° |
| Oct 22 | 70° | 72° | 86° / 58° | 72° |
| Oct 23 | 70° | 72° | 86° / 54° | 72° |
| Oct 24 | 71° | 73° | 88° / 60° | 72° |
| Oct 25 | 72° | 73° | 84° / 61° | 71° |
| Oct 26 | 72° | 73° | 87° / 60° | 71° |
| Oct 27 | 72° | 74° | 80° / 65° | 70° |
| Oct 28 | 73° | 74° | 83° / 66° | 69° |
| Oct 29 | 74° | 75° | 84° / 69° | 68° |
| Oct 30 | 73° | 74° | 73° / 67° | 68° |
| Oct 31 | 74° | 75° | 83° / 68° | 67° |
| Nov 1 | 74° | 75° | 87° / 64° | 67° |
| Nov 2 | 75° | 76° | 87° / 67° | 67° |
| Nov 3 | 74° | 75° | 83° / 64° | 67° |
| Nov 4 (forecast) | 72° | 74° | 77° / 56° | 67° |
| Nov 5 (forecast) | 72° | 73° | 79° / 63° | 67° |
| Nov 6 (forecast) | 70° | 72° | 76° / 58° | 68° |
| Nov 7 (forecast) | 68° | 71° | 73° / 55° | 68° |
| Nov 8 (forecast) | 65° | 68° | 68° / 50° | 68° |
| Nov 9 (forecast) | 64° | 67° | 70° / 51° | 68° |
| Nov 10 (forecast) | 64° | 66° | 73° / 54° | 67° |
Which grass grows in Victoria
With mild winters (January averages 54°F), most Victoria lawns are warm-season grasses such as bermudagrass, St. Augustine, zoysia and centipede. They grow through summer and slow or go dormant in winter.
Victoria soil through the year
Weekly 2-inch estimates for 2026 so far against 2025 and the normal for each week. The red lines mark 50°F, when crabgrass pre-emergent should be down, and 65°F, when warm-season seed sprouts well.
2026 2025 Normal (2005–2025) 8 years in 10
Normal by month
| Month | 2 in | 4 in | Air |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 54° | 55° | 54° |
| Feb | 57° | 58° | 59° |
| Mar | 65° | 66° | 65° |
| Apr | 71° | 72° | 70° |
| May | 79° | 80° | 77° |
| Jun | 85° | 86° | 83° |
| Jul | 86° | 88° | 85° |
| Aug | 87° | 89° | 85° |
| Sep | 83° | 85° | 80° |
| Oct | 74° | 76° | 73° |
| Nov | 64° | 66° | 63° |
| Dec | 57° | 59° | 56° |
Soil: average of our daily estimates, 2005–2025. Air: NOAA 1991–2020 normals for the station.
Typical lawn dates in Victoria
Each date is when the soil estimate (or the air, for freezes) crossed the threshold, year by year since 2005. “Early” and “late” are the 10th and 90th percentile years, so 8 years in 10 fall between them.
| Event | Typical | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Last spring freeze (32°F) | Feb 26 | Mar 17 |
| Crabgrass model: 250 growing degree days | Jan 11 | Jan 8 |
| Pre-emergent window opens (2-inch soil 50°F) | early Feb | Feb 6 |
| Crabgrass begins to sprout (2-inch soil 55°F) | Feb 15 | Feb 15 |
| Cool-season lawns start growing (4-inch soil 55°F) | Feb 1 | Feb 10 |
| Warm-season seeding opens (4-inch soil 65°F) | Mar 7 | Feb 19 |
| Cool-season seeding opens (4-inch soil under 70°F) | Nov 2 | not yet |
| Cool-season seeding ends (4-inch soil under 55°F) (in 17 of 21 years) | Dec 10 | not yet |
| Warm-season grass goes dormant (4-inch under 55°F) (in 17 of 21 years) | Dec 10 | not yet |
| First fall freeze (32°F) (in 19 of 21 years) | Dec 2 | not yet |
Where these numbers come from
There is no soil sensor in most cities, so we estimate it. Shallow soil follows air temperature with a lag of a few days, and runs a little warmer than the air in fall. We fitted that relationship to 190 USDA soil-sensor stations; on years held out of the fit, the estimate was off by 3.3°F on an average day, and it put the spring 55°F date within a median of 3 days. Read the methodology.
Weather: RCC ACIS station KVCT (VICTORIA REGIONAL AP), daily data since 1953. Forecast: National Weather Service, CRP office, issued Nov 4, 2026, 1:46 AM EST. Last observed day: Nov 3, 2026.
Victoria questions
What is the soil temperature in Victoria today? Our estimate for Nov 3 is 74°F at 2 inches and 75°F at 4 inches, as a daily average. Early-morning soil runs a few degrees cooler than that, and afternoon soil warmer.
When should I put down crabgrass pre-emergent in Victoria? Apply when 2-inch soil holds about 50°F and before it holds 55°F. That has typically been early Feb to Feb 15 in Victoria. For 2026 the window closed on Feb 15.
When can I seed bermudagrass in Victoria? Seed or sod now. 4-inch soil is 75°. Seed planted later than late summer has little warm weather left to establish before dormancy.
Is it too late to fertilize in Victoria? Expected about Dec 10. Warm-season grass slows and browns once 4-inch soil stays under 55°F, typically Dec 10. Make the last nitrogen feeding at least a month before that.
When is the last frost in Victoria? The last 32°F night of spring has typically come around Feb 26, and as late as Mar 7 in 1 year in 10. The first fall freeze typically arrives around Dec 2.
Why 2 inches and 4 inches? Crabgrass and most weed seeds sprout in the top inch or two, so pre-emergent timing follows 2-inch soil. Grass seed and roots respond to the slightly steadier soil at about 4 inches.
How accurate is this? It is a model, not a probe in your yard. Expect about 3–4°F of difference on a given day; shade, slope, mulch and irrigation all move real soil. The dates and trends are more reliable than any single day.