What to do in Erie now
Erie is in cool-season grass country. Dates are typical for this spot, worked out from 23 years of weather at Erie Intl Ap; each status uses this year's soil estimates.
Cool-season: tall fescue, Kentucky bluegrass, perennial ryegrass, fine fescue
- Crabgrass pre-emergent Closed Apr 17 Typical: Apr 16 – May 32-inch soil held 55°F for a week from Apr 17, so crabgrass was sprouting. Next window: about Apr 16 – May 3, 2027.
- Seed or overseed Late · risky Typical: Sep 14 – Oct 24Soil fell below 55°F on Oct 22. Seed sown now germinates slowly and may not survive winter. The hard stop, 4-inch soil under 50°F, typically comes around Nov 5.
- Late-fall feeding Final feeding from about Nov 5 Typical: Nov 5 – Nov 30Not too late. Feed on your normal fall schedule; the last feeding of the year goes down when 4-inch soil falls to about 50°F (typically Nov 5) and before it reaches 40°F (typically Nov 30).
Warm-season: bermudagrass, zoysia, St. Augustine, centipede, bahia
- Crabgrass pre-emergent Closed Apr 17 Typical: Apr 16 – May 32-inch soil held 55°F for a week from Apr 17, so crabgrass was sprouting. Next window: about Apr 16 – May 3, 2027.
- Seed or sod Wait for late spring Typical: May 29 – Sep 14Warm-season seed needs 4-inch soil at 65°F or more, and seedlings need the rest of summer to establish. Next window opens about May 29.
- Fall pre-emergent (Poa annua) Germinating since Sep 22 Typical: By Sep 124-inch soil fell below 70°F on Sep 22, when annual bluegrass begins to sprout. A pre-emergent now only stops later flushes; plan to apply by about Sep 12 next year.
- Dormancy and last feeding Dormant since about Oct 22 Typical: Around Oct 244-inch soil has stayed under 55°F since Oct 22, so warm-season grass is going brown. It is too late to fertilize; feed again after spring green-up, once soil holds 65°F (typically May 29).
The last 60 days and the week ahead
Erie soil is 11° warmer than normal for Nov 3, warmer than on 97% of those dates since 2005, and 12° warmer than a year ago.
The green line is our estimate of the daily average soil temperature 2 inches down, driven by temperatures at Erie Intl Ap, 9.8 km from the city center. The dashed part runs the National Weather Service forecast through the same model. Hover or tap for any day.
2-inch soil, estimated From the NWS forecast Normal Normal range (8 years in 10)
Show the numbers
| Date | 2-inch soil | 4-inch soil | Air high / low | Normal (2 in) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | 51° | 53° | 59° / 34° | 54° |
| Oct 22 | 50° | 52° | 61° / 34° | 54° |
| Oct 23 | 50° | 52° | 59° / 40° | 54° |
| Oct 24 | 50° | 52° | 63° / 40° | 53° |
| Oct 25 | 51° | 53° | 64° / 43° | 53° |
| Oct 26 | 53° | 54° | 65° / 48° | 52° |
| Oct 27 | 52° | 53° | 57° / 43° | 52° |
| Oct 28 | 53° | 54° | 69° / 44° | 51° |
| Oct 29 | 57° | 57° | 75° / 54° | 51° |
| Oct 30 | 57° | 57° | 63° / 50° | 50° |
| Oct 31 | 54° | 55° | 57° / 38° | 49° |
| Nov 1 | 55° | 56° | 71° / 43° | 49° |
| Nov 2 | 57° | 58° | 73° / 54° | 49° |
| Nov 3 | 60° | 60° | 75° / 59° | 49° |
| Nov 4 (forecast) | 62° | 62° | 75° / 56° | 49° |
| Nov 5 (forecast) | 60° | 61° | 66° / 48° | 49° |
| Nov 6 (forecast) | 57° | 59° | 58° / 42° | 49° |
| Nov 7 (forecast) | 53° | 56° | 51° / 38° | 49° |
| Nov 8 (forecast) | 51° | 54° | 52° / 39° | 48° |
| Nov 9 (forecast) | 49° | 52° | 52° / 40° | 48° |
| Nov 10 (forecast) | 48° | 51° | 55° / 39° | 47° |
Which grass grows in Erie
Erie winters are cold enough (January averages 28°F) that cool-season grasses, mostly Kentucky bluegrass, tall fescue and perennial ryegrass, make up most lawns. They grow in spring and fall and slow down in summer heat.
Erie soil through the year
Weekly 2-inch estimates for 2026 so far against 2025 and the normal for each week. The red lines mark 50°F, when crabgrass pre-emergent should be down, and 65°F, when warm-season seed sprouts well.
2026 2025 Normal (2005–2025) 8 years in 10
Normal by month
| Month | 2 in | 4 in | Air |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 34° | 35° | 28° |
| Feb | 34° | 35° | 29° |
| Mar | 38° | 39° | 36° |
| Apr | 47° | 48° | 47° |
| May | 59° | 60° | 59° |
| Jun | 69° | 71° | 68° |
| Jul | 75° | 76° | 73° |
| Aug | 73° | 75° | 72° |
| Sep | 68° | 69° | 65° |
| Oct | 56° | 58° | 54° |
| Nov | 44° | 46° | 44° |
| Dec | 36° | 38° | 34° |
Soil: average of our daily estimates, 2005–2025. Air: NOAA 1991–2020 normals for the station.
Typical lawn dates in Erie
Each date is when the soil estimate (or the air, for freezes) crossed the threshold, year by year since 2005. “Early” and “late” are the 10th and 90th percentile years, so 8 years in 10 fall between them.
| Event | Typical | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Last spring freeze (32°F) | Apr 28 | Apr 21 |
| Crabgrass model: 250 growing degree days | Mar 19 | Mar 10 |
| Pre-emergent window opens (2-inch soil 50°F) | Apr 16 | Mar 11 |
| Crabgrass begins to sprout (2-inch soil 55°F) | May 3 | Apr 17 |
| Cool-season lawns start growing (4-inch soil 55°F) | May 3 | Apr 17 |
| Warm-season seeding opens (4-inch soil 65°F) | May 29 | Jun 8 |
| Cool-season seeding opens (4-inch soil under 70°F) | Sep 14 | Sep 22 |
| Cool-season seeding ends (4-inch soil under 55°F) | Oct 24 | Oct 22 |
| Warm-season grass goes dormant (4-inch under 55°F) | Oct 24 | Oct 22 |
| First fall freeze (32°F) | Nov 7 | not yet |
| Roots stop feeding (4-inch soil under 40°F) | Nov 30 | not yet |
Where these numbers come from
There is no soil sensor in most cities, so we estimate it. Shallow soil follows air temperature with a lag of a few days, and runs a little warmer than the air in fall. We fitted that relationship to 190 USDA soil-sensor stations; on years held out of the fit, the estimate was off by 3.3°F on an average day, and it put the spring 55°F date within a median of 3 days. Read the methodology.
Weather: RCC ACIS station KERI (ERIE INTL AP), daily data since 1926. Forecast: National Weather Service, CLE office, issued Nov 4, 2026, 3:47 AM EST. Last observed day: Nov 3, 2026.
Erie questions
What is the soil temperature in Erie today? Our estimate for Nov 3 is 60°F at 2 inches and 60°F at 4 inches, as a daily average. Early-morning soil runs a few degrees cooler than that, and afternoon soil warmer.
When should I put down crabgrass pre-emergent in Erie? Apply when 2-inch soil holds about 50°F and before it holds 55°F. That has typically been Apr 16 to May 3 in Erie. For 2026 the window closed on Apr 17.
Is it too late to overseed in Erie? Late · risky. Soil fell below 55°F on Oct 22. Seed sown now germinates slowly and may not survive winter. The hard stop, 4-inch soil under 50°F, typically comes around Nov 5.
Is it too late to fertilize in Erie? Final feeding from about Nov 5. Not too late. Feed on your normal fall schedule; the last feeding of the year goes down when 4-inch soil falls to about 50°F (typically Nov 5) and before it reaches 40°F (typically Nov 30).
When is the last frost in Erie? The last 32°F night of spring has typically come around Apr 28, and as late as May 14 in 1 year in 10. The first fall freeze typically arrives around Nov 7.
Why 2 inches and 4 inches? Crabgrass and most weed seeds sprout in the top inch or two, so pre-emergent timing follows 2-inch soil. Grass seed and roots respond to the slightly steadier soil at about 4 inches.
How accurate is this? It is a model, not a probe in your yard. Expect about 3–4°F of difference on a given day; shade, slope, mulch and irrigation all move real soil. The dates and trends are more reliable than any single day.