What to do in Buffalo now
Buffalo is in cool-season grass country. Dates are typical for this spot, worked out from 23 years of weather at Buffalo Niagara International Airpor; each status uses this year's soil estimates.
Cool-season: tall fescue, Kentucky bluegrass, perennial ryegrass, fine fescue
- Crabgrass pre-emergent Closed Apr 18 Typical: Apr 21 – May 62-inch soil held 55°F for a week from Apr 18, so crabgrass was sprouting. Next window: about Apr 21 – May 6, 2027.
- Seed or overseed Late · risky Typical: Sep 9 – Oct 22Soil fell below 55°F on Oct 22. Seed sown now germinates slowly and may not survive winter. The hard stop, 4-inch soil under 50°F, typically comes around Nov 3.
- Late-fall feeding Final feeding due now Typical: Nov 3 – Nov 25Not too late. Feed on your normal fall schedule; the last feeding of the year goes down when 4-inch soil falls to about 50°F (typically Nov 3) and before it reaches 40°F (typically Nov 25).
Warm-season: bermudagrass, zoysia, St. Augustine, centipede, bahia
- Crabgrass pre-emergent Closed Apr 18 Typical: Apr 21 – May 62-inch soil held 55°F for a week from Apr 18, so crabgrass was sprouting. Next window: about Apr 21 – May 6, 2027.
- Seed or sod Wait for late spring Typical: May 30 – Sep 9Warm-season seed needs 4-inch soil at 65°F or more, and seedlings need the rest of summer to establish. Next window opens about May 30.
- Fall pre-emergent (Poa annua) Germinating since Sep 15 Typical: By Sep 54-inch soil fell below 70°F on Sep 15, when annual bluegrass begins to sprout. A pre-emergent now only stops later flushes; plan to apply by about Sep 5 next year.
- Dormancy and last feeding Dormant since about Oct 22 Typical: Around Oct 224-inch soil has stayed under 55°F since Oct 22, so warm-season grass is going brown. It is too late to fertilize; feed again after spring green-up, once soil holds 65°F (typically May 30).
The last 60 days and the week ahead
Buffalo soil is 10° warmer than normal for Nov 3, warmer than on 95% of those dates since 2005, and 12° warmer than a year ago.
The green line is our estimate of the daily average soil temperature 2 inches down, driven by temperatures at Buffalo Niagara International Airpor, 11.4 km from the city center. The dashed part runs the National Weather Service forecast through the same model. Hover or tap for any day.
2-inch soil, estimated From the NWS forecast Normal Normal range (8 years in 10)
Show the numbers
| Date | 2-inch soil | 4-inch soil | Air high / low | Normal (2 in) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | 51° | 53° | 63° / 34° | 52° |
| Oct 22 | 50° | 52° | 63° / 34° | 52° |
| Oct 23 | 50° | 52° | 59° / 40° | 51° |
| Oct 24 | 50° | 52° | 65° / 38° | 51° |
| Oct 25 | 51° | 52° | 64° / 39° | 50° |
| Oct 26 | 52° | 53° | 65° / 46° | 50° |
| Oct 27 | 51° | 52° | 55° / 39° | 49° |
| Oct 28 | 52° | 53° | 67° / 43° | 49° |
| Oct 29 | 54° | 55° | 71° / 50° | 48° |
| Oct 30 | 54° | 55° | 61° / 44° | 48° |
| Oct 31 | 52° | 53° | 56° / 39° | 47° |
| Nov 1 | 53° | 54° | 70° / 39° | 47° |
| Nov 2 | 53° | 54° | 65° / 46° | 47° |
| Nov 3 | 57° | 57° | 72° / 57° | 47° |
| Nov 4 (forecast) | 59° | 59° | 73° / 58° | 46° |
| Nov 5 (forecast) | 58° | 59° | 64° / 50° | 46° |
| Nov 6 (forecast) | 56° | 57° | 60° / 43° | 46° |
| Nov 7 (forecast) | 53° | 55° | 53° / 38° | 46° |
| Nov 8 (forecast) | 51° | 53° | 54° / 38° | 46° |
| Nov 9 (forecast) | 50° | 52° | 54° / 41° | 46° |
| Nov 10 (forecast) | 49° | 51° | 57° / 37° | 45° |
Which grass grows in Buffalo
Buffalo winters are cold enough (January averages 26°F) that cool-season grasses, mostly Kentucky bluegrass, tall fescue and perennial ryegrass, make up most lawns. They grow in spring and fall and slow down in summer heat.
Buffalo soil through the year
Weekly 2-inch estimates for 2026 so far against 2025 and the normal for each week. The red lines mark 50°F, when crabgrass pre-emergent should be down, and 65°F, when warm-season seed sprouts well.
2026 2025 Normal (2005–2025) 8 years in 10
Normal by month
| Month | 2 in | 4 in | Air |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 33° | 35° | 26° |
| Feb | 33° | 34° | 27° |
| Mar | 37° | 38° | 34° |
| Apr | 46° | 47° | 46° |
| May | 58° | 60° | 58° |
| Jun | 69° | 70° | 67° |
| Jul | 74° | 76° | 72° |
| Aug | 73° | 75° | 70° |
| Sep | 66° | 68° | 63° |
| Oct | 54° | 56° | 52° |
| Nov | 42° | 44° | 41° |
| Dec | 35° | 36° | 31° |
Soil: average of our daily estimates, 2005–2025. Air: NOAA 1991–2020 normals for the station.
Typical lawn dates in Buffalo
Each date is when the soil estimate (or the air, for freezes) crossed the threshold, year by year since 2005. “Early” and “late” are the 10th and 90th percentile years, so 8 years in 10 fall between them.
| Event | Typical | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Last spring freeze (32°F) | Apr 24 | May 3 |
| Crabgrass model: 250 growing degree days | Mar 26 | Mar 25 |
| Pre-emergent window opens (2-inch soil 50°F) | Apr 21 | Apr 15 |
| Crabgrass begins to sprout (2-inch soil 55°F) | May 6 | Apr 18 |
| Cool-season lawns start growing (4-inch soil 55°F) | May 4 | Apr 18 |
| Warm-season seeding opens (4-inch soil 65°F) | May 30 | Jun 8 |
| Cool-season seeding opens (4-inch soil under 70°F) | Sep 9 | Sep 17 |
| Cool-season seeding ends (4-inch soil under 55°F) | Oct 22 | Oct 22 |
| Warm-season grass goes dormant (4-inch under 55°F) | Oct 22 | Oct 22 |
| First fall freeze (32°F) | Oct 30 | not yet |
| Roots stop feeding (4-inch soil under 40°F) | Nov 25 | not yet |
Where these numbers come from
There is no soil sensor in most cities, so we estimate it. Shallow soil follows air temperature with a lag of a few days, and runs a little warmer than the air in fall. We fitted that relationship to 190 USDA soil-sensor stations; on years held out of the fit, the estimate was off by 3.3°F on an average day, and it put the spring 55°F date within a median of 3 days. Read the methodology.
Weather: RCC ACIS station KBUF (BUFFALO NIAGARA INTERNATIONAL AIRPOR), daily data since 1938. Forecast: National Weather Service, BUF office, issued Nov 4, 2026, 6:57 AM EST. Last observed day: Nov 3, 2026.
Buffalo questions
What is the soil temperature in Buffalo today? Our estimate for Nov 3 is 57°F at 2 inches and 57°F at 4 inches, as a daily average. Early-morning soil runs a few degrees cooler than that, and afternoon soil warmer.
When should I put down crabgrass pre-emergent in Buffalo? Apply when 2-inch soil holds about 50°F and before it holds 55°F. That has typically been Apr 21 to May 6 in Buffalo. For 2026 the window closed on Apr 18.
Is it too late to overseed in Buffalo? Late · risky. Soil fell below 55°F on Oct 22. Seed sown now germinates slowly and may not survive winter. The hard stop, 4-inch soil under 50°F, typically comes around Nov 3.
Is it too late to fertilize in Buffalo? Final feeding due now. Not too late. Feed on your normal fall schedule; the last feeding of the year goes down when 4-inch soil falls to about 50°F (typically Nov 3) and before it reaches 40°F (typically Nov 25).
When is the last frost in Buffalo? The last 32°F night of spring has typically come around Apr 24, and as late as Apr 30 in 1 year in 10. The first fall freeze typically arrives around Oct 30.
Why 2 inches and 4 inches? Crabgrass and most weed seeds sprout in the top inch or two, so pre-emergent timing follows 2-inch soil. Grass seed and roots respond to the slightly steadier soil at about 4 inches.
How accurate is this? It is a model, not a probe in your yard. Expect about 3–4°F of difference on a given day; shade, slope, mulch and irrigation all move real soil. The dates and trends are more reliable than any single day.